Closer to causality: How effective is spatial planning in governing built-up land expansion in Fujian Province, China?

Spatial planning has been globally developed as a policy tool to govern built-up land expansion. However, causal evidence of the effect spatial on expansion is limited, which raises doubts credibility and hinders theoretical developments in land-system science. We evaluated Major Function Oriented Zone (MFOZ), first strategic plan China, Fujian Province over three time intervals (2013–2015, 2013–2018 2013–2020). Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied overcome selection bias obtain evidence. implemented conventional conformance evaluation reference for PSM-based evaluation, demonstrate problem bias. The showed that MFOZ effectively governed intervals. smaller significant only period 2013–2020. That is, results an initially ineffective being estimated effective 2013–2015 exaggerates In aggregate, Fujian’s prevented total 79.31 km2 within development-restricted zone between 2013 2020. To conclude, we recommend wider application evaluating land-use change, since this method accounts provides more accurate regarding causality than evaluations.